Is Rockefeller Center Too Big to Fail? A Look at NYC's Office Drama

What if empty office spaces could transform into bustling hubs of creativity and innovation? Explore with us as we unravel the future of iconic office buildings like Rockefeller Center, a landmark that defies the odds with a remarkable 95% occupancy rate, even as remote work reshapes the corporate landscape. Faced with the daunting task of refinancing a $3.5 billion loan amid rising interest rates, we discuss whether Rockefeller Center's historic charm can overcome financial hurdles, potentially setting a precedent for office spaces across the nation.

Join us as we consider the exciting possibilities of adaptive reuse, from vibrant urban apartments to indoor vertical farms. Discover how Rockefeller Center’s journey in refinancing could signal a broader shift in the real estate market, as it navigates the challenges of attracting people back to the office. We reflect on the need for office spaces to evolve, offering flexibility and unique amenities to become destinations in their own right. Stay curious about the ever-changing urban landscape and imagine a future where innovation and adaptability redefine the way we work and live.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Future of Iconic Office Buildings
• 9:47 Adapting Office Spaces for the Future
• 16:21 Embracing Change in Real Estate

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

All right, so get this. We've got Rockefeller Center right, this iconic landmark in the middle of Manhattan.

Speaker 2: 0:06

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 0:07

We're talking NBC Studios, Radio City Music Hall, the Ice Rink, all that good stuff. But there's a catch.

Speaker 2: 0:14

Okay.

Speaker 1: 0:15

It needs like a huge financial makeover.

Speaker 2: 0:17

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 0:18

And this whole thing might tell us like a lot about what's going to happen with office buildings Right All across the country. Yeah, you know think of it like a lot about what's going to happen with office buildings Right All across the country. Yeah, you know, think of it like a really high stakes game of Monopoly. Yeah, but with properties that are worth billions of dollars.

Speaker 2: 0:29

Yeah, that's right. The pandemic really just like flipped the whole office market on its head.

Speaker 1: 0:35

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 0:35

You know, it's like we fast forwarded to this future where working from home is normal now.

Speaker 1: 0:41

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 0:41

And a lot of these big office towers are feeling pretty empty.

Speaker 1: 0:44

Yeah, and the article I read even used this phrase ghost reservations. Oh wow, comparing these empty offices to restaurants with like no diners in them.

Speaker 2: 0:53

Oh, that's kind of eerie. Yeah, it's kind of spooky yeah.

Speaker 1: 0:55

But you know what Rockefeller Center seems like it's doing? Ok, they have like a 95 percent occupancy rate. How are they doing that when so many other places are struggling?

Speaker 2: 1:03

Well you know, Rockefeller Center is not just your typical office building. Yeah, it's like a whole ecosystem going on there.

Speaker 1: 1:09

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 1:10

You've got the offices, obviously, but also the entertainment venues.

Speaker 1: 1:13

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 1:14

The retail spaces and it's a huge tourist attraction.

Speaker 1: 1:16

Yeah, it's like a whole world unto itself.

Speaker 2: 1:18

It is. It's like a diversified portfolio. You know.

Speaker 1: 1:20

Well, that's smart. So they didn't put all their eggs in one basket. Right, exactly, but they still need to refinance a massive loan. Yeah, like three point five billion dollars, yeah Right, and a bunch of it is due next year. What happens if they can't get that refinance?

Speaker 2: 1:34

Well, that's the big question. You know, it has people a little on edge. The article mentioned that only 30 percent of large office loans were paid back on time this year.

Speaker 1: 1:43

Wow.

Speaker 2: 1:44

A lot of them are getting extensions or even defaulting, so that paints a pretty stark picture of what's happening. Yeah, but going back to Rockefeller Center, you know, if they can successfully refinance, that would be a huge signal that even in this world, these iconic places still have a chance.

Speaker 1: 2:01

Okay, so break down refinancing. For me, sure, is it like refinancing your mortgage, but just way bigger.

Speaker 2: 2:07

Exactly. It's basically getting a new loan to pay off your old loan.

Speaker 1: 2:11

Okay.

Speaker 2: 2:12

And hopefully this new loan will have better terms. You know, maybe a lower interest rate which makes it easier to manage the debt, but it's not as easy as it sounds, because interest rates are going up.

Speaker 1: 2:22

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 2:23

And lenders are being very cautious these days.

Speaker 1: 2:26

So it's like they're in this high stakes poker game with the lenders.

Speaker 2: 2:29

Right.

Speaker 1: 2:30

And the stakes are super high. The article mentioned a couple other buildings that were able to refinance.

Speaker 2: 2:34

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 2:35

Does that give us any clues about what might happen with Rockefeller Center?

Speaker 2: 2:39

Well, those were interesting cases, but those were what you call prime properties. They had good tenants locked in for a long time and they were in really good location.

Speaker 1: 2:46

Also like the best of the best.

Speaker 2: 2:48

Yeah, like the valedictorians of the real estate world.

Speaker 1: 2:51

Ah, okay, so not a great comparison then. It sounds like the office market is turning into survival of the fittest.

Speaker 2: 2:58

It really is, and it makes you wonder what happens to these iconic landmarks like Rockefeller Center. They might not have all the fancy new stuff.

Speaker 1: 3:08

Right.

Speaker 2: 3:09

But they've got the history, they've got the charm, yeah, and that it. You know what I mean.

Speaker 1: 3:13

In the article I had this comparison of Rockefeller Center to like a classic car.

Speaker 2: 3:17

Oh, I like that.

Speaker 1: 3:18

It may not have the latest technology, but it's still valuable.

Speaker 2: 3:21

Yeah, it is, but is that nostalgia going to be enough to save it?

Speaker 1: 3:25

Right.

Speaker 2: 3:25

You know, at the end of the day, lenders care about the bottom line.

Speaker 1: 3:29

Yeah no-transcript.

Speaker 2: 4:01

More in office buildings than they bought this year.

Speaker 1: 4:03

That's a huge red flag. It is, but even if the big players are leaving. Maybe that opens up opportunities for smaller investors or even local communities to step in.

Speaker 2: 4:16

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 4:16

And do something new with these spaces.

Speaker 2: 4:18

That's a good point.

Speaker 1: 4:19

You know, breathe some new life into them.

Speaker 2: 4:21

Yeah, that's an interesting thought.

Speaker 1: 4:23

Yeah, like when one door closes, another one opens, kind of thing.

Speaker 2: 4:25

Right, exactly.

Speaker 1: 4:26

Maybe this shift away from traditional office spaces will give us some new ideas.

Speaker 2: 4:31

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 4:31

About what to do with them Exactly, things we haven't even thought of yet, absolutely. The article even mentioned some pretty out there possibilities like turning offices into apartments.

Speaker 2: 4:40

I've heard of that.

Speaker 1: 4:42

Or even to wait for indoor vertical farms.

Speaker 2: 4:44

Yeah, I saw that too. That's pretty wild.

Speaker 1: 4:47

Yeah, that's radical.

Speaker 2: 4:48

It is.

Speaker 1: 4:49

But it speaks to this whole idea of adaptive reuse. You know, you take something old, you give it a new purpose.

Speaker 2: 4:54

Exactly Like those old factories that are now trendy lofts yeah.

Speaker 1: 4:58

Or warehouses turned into art galleries.

Speaker 2: 5:00

Exactly.

Speaker 1: 5:01

But not every office building can be an indoor farm Right. So what are some more realistic options?

Speaker 2: 5:06

Well, I think flexibility is key. You know buildings that can easily be reconfigured Okay To handle different types of tenants. That's what's going to make them successful.

Speaker 1: 5:16

So it's not just about the space itself, right, it's about how adaptable it is, exactly. But what about working from home? Yeah, are people even going to want to come back to the office?

Speaker 2: 5:25

That's the million dollar question.

Speaker 1: 5:32

And if they do come back.

Speaker 2: 5:32

What's going to make them want to leave their couch and their home office? That is the question that landlords and developers are grappling with right now.

Speaker 1: 5:36

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 5:36

They're realizing that offices need to be more than just a place to work. Yeah, they need to be a destination.

Speaker 1: 5:42

So you're talking about creating an experience.

Speaker 2: 5:44

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 5:44

Like what's the vibe, what are the perks?

Speaker 2: 5:47

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 5:47

What makes this office special?

Speaker 2: 5:49

Exactly, think on-site amenities. Okay, exactly Think on-site amenities like a fitness center or a cool cafe, maybe even child care facilities, oh wow.

Speaker 1: 5:59

You know places for people to collaborate and socialize.

Speaker 2: 6:02

It's like the office is turning into this mini community.

Speaker 1: 6:05

It really is. You go there to work, but you also go there to connect with people, to learn and be part of something.

Speaker 2: 6:11

And for iconic places like Rockefeller Center.

Speaker 1: 6:14

Right.

Speaker 2: 6:14

That sense of community is already there.

Speaker 1: 6:17

Exactly.

Speaker 2: 6:17

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 6:18

They're already ahead of the game.

Speaker 2: 6:19

They have that history.

Speaker 1: 6:20

They do.

Speaker 2: 6:21

But they're still walking this tightrope.

Speaker 1: 6:23

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 6:23

Trying to balance their legacy with this new world of work.

Speaker 1: 6:26

That's right, and that's what makes this so interesting.

Speaker 2: 6:28

It does.

Speaker 1: 6:29

It's like a tiny version of what's happening in the entire office market.

Speaker 2: 6:33

It's like a test case.

Speaker 1: 6:34

Exactly, can these iconic buildings adapt and survive in this crazy world?

Speaker 2: 6:41

So this has got me thinking what does the future hold for all these office buildings?

Speaker 1: 6:47

Yeah, good question.

Speaker 2: 6:48

Are we going to see more adaptive reuse projects?

Speaker 1: 6:53

I think so.

Speaker 2: 6:53

Are offices going to become more like community centers? Maybe, Are we all going to be working in vertical farms?

Speaker 1: 7:00

Who knows? But I think we're going to see a lot of experimentation.

Speaker 2: 7:03

And a lot of new ideas. The old way of doing things is being challenged.

Speaker 1: 7:07

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 7:08

And that opens up the door for new approaches.

Speaker 1: 7:10

So it's like we're seeing a new era of the workplace being born right now.

Speaker 2: 7:14

I think so.

Speaker 1: 7:15

It's exciting, but in the meantime we've got this refinancing deal with Rockefeller Center.

Speaker 2: 7:20

Right.

Speaker 1: 7:21

Do you think they're going to be able to pull it off?

Speaker 2: 7:24

Hard to say for sure, the financial world can be unpredictable.

Speaker 1: 7:27

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 7:28

But whatever happens, it's going to have a big impact on everyone.

Speaker 1: 7:31

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 7:32

It's not just about this one building Right. It's about the future of work.

Speaker 1: 7:35

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 7:35

And how we use space in our cities.

Speaker 1: 7:37

That's a big deal. This whole thing has given me a lot to think about Me too, so let's take a minute and recap what we've learned. Okay, so we've got this iconic landmark, rockefeller Center, that needs a big financial boost, right, and it can tell us a lot about the future of offices everywhere yeah, not just in New York.

Speaker 1: 7:59

We talked about how Rockefeller Center has some things going for it, like its mix of tenants, its status as a tourist destination and its classic charm. But we know charm can only take you so far. Yeah, the numbers have to work.

Speaker 2: 8:10

Absolutely. Lenders want to see a solid plan. Yeah, for how this building is going to make money.

Speaker 1: 8:17

Especially with so many empty offices out there.

Speaker 2: 8:20

Exactly. And even if Rockefeller Center manages to refinance successfully, yeah, that doesn't mean the office market is all of a sudden healthy again.

Speaker 1: 8:29

Right, there are still challenges.

Speaker 2: 8:31

Yeah, big ones.

Speaker 1: 8:32

Like those major investors selling off their office building.

Speaker 2: 8:35

That's right. It's not a great sign.

Speaker 1: 8:37

No, it's not, but maybe, just maybe. Yeah, this opens up opportunities for some new players to come in.

Speaker 2: 8:43

Right. New ideas, new approaches.

Speaker 1: 8:46

Maybe those vertical farms will take off after all.

Speaker 2: 8:48

You never know.

Speaker 1: 8:49

The office market is changing, and the most successful buildings are going to be the ones that can adapt.

Speaker 2: 8:53

Absolutely.

Speaker 1: 8:54

They'll need to be flexible and offer something unique. Right, it's not enough to just have a fancy address anymore. Nope, it's about creating a whole experience.

Speaker 2: 9:01

Exactly. It needs to be a place where people want to be.

Speaker 1: 9:04

And that's something that a place like Rockefeller Center, with its history and energy, might be able to pull off.

Speaker 2: 9:12

I think so too.

Speaker 1: 9:13

It's like they're starting the race a few steps ahead.

Speaker 2: 9:15

They are, but it's still a race.

Speaker 1: 9:18

It is.

Speaker 2: 9:18

And it's not over yet. This has definitely given me a lot to think about.

Speaker 1: 9:21

Yeah, me too. What's your biggest takeaway from all this?

Speaker 2: 9:25

You know, for me it's just a reminder that even in this crazy world where things are changing so fast, there's still value in these iconic places. They represent history and community and a sense of place that you just can't get online.

Speaker 1: 9:41

I love that. It's like these anchors in a sea of constant change.

Speaker 2: 9:46

Exactly.

Speaker 1: 9:47

So, as we wrap up this deep dive into the world of real estate and this fascinating story of Rockefeller Center, what's the one thing you hope our listeners take away from all this?

Speaker 2: 9:57

I hope they come away with a sense of curiosity and a sense of possibility. The office market is in flux, but that means there's room for innovation and creativity. We don't know what the future holds, but it's going to be fun to watch it unfold.

Speaker 1: 10:13

I agree. So to all of you deep divers out there, yes. Keep watching the skyline, because the future of our cities is being written right now.

Speaker 2: 10:22

That's a great way to put it.

Speaker 1: 10:23

And who knows, maybe one day we'll all be working in those vertical farms. Maybe, Eating our locally grown lettuce.

Speaker 2: 10:29

Sounds delicious farms.

Speaker 1: 10:32

Maybe Eating our locally grown lettuce Sounds delicious and sustainable, and sustainable while we brainstorm the next big thing, right. Thanks for joining us on this deep dive.

Speaker 2: 10:37

It was my pleasure.

Speaker 1: 10:38

Until next time.

Speaker 2: 10:39

Yes.

Speaker 1: 10:40

Keep exploring, keep questioning and keep diving deep.

Speaker 2: 10:43

Absolutely. It's like you said one door closes, another one opens, right Right, Maybe this is a chance for something totally new.

Speaker 1: 10:49

Yeah, like a blank canvas waiting for someone to come in and create something amazing.

Speaker 2: 10:53

Yeah, I like that.

Speaker 1: 10:54

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 10:55

And speaking of new ideas, did you see that part in the article?

Speaker 1: 10:58

Oh yeah.

Speaker 2: 10:58

About what to do with all this empty office space. They were talking about, like turning them into apartments or even indoor vertical farms.

Speaker 1: 11:06

Indoor vertical farms.

Speaker 2: 11:07

I know it sounds crazy.

Speaker 1: 11:09

Yeah, pretty wild.

Speaker 2: 11:10

But it's part of this bigger trend of adaptive reuse.

Speaker 1: 11:14

Right Taking something old and giving it a whole new purpose.

Speaker 2: 11:17

Exactly.

Speaker 1: 11:17

Like all those old factories, they're turning into lofts now.

Speaker 2: 11:20

Right, or warehouses turning into art galleries.

Speaker 1: 11:23

Yeah, exactly yeah.

Speaker 2: 11:24

It's happening everywhere.

Speaker 1: 11:25

But not every office building can be a farm.

Speaker 2: 11:27

Right. What about some more realistic options? Well, I think the key is flexibility. Okay, you know buildings that can be easily reconfigured.

Speaker 1: 11:40

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 11:40

To fit different kinds of tenants Right. Those are the ones that are going to make it.

Speaker 1: 11:44

So it's not just about the space itself, right, it's about how adaptable it is.

Speaker 2: 11:48

Exactly.

Speaker 1: 11:49

But what about this whole work from home thing?

Speaker 2: 11:51

Yeah, that's a big one.

Speaker 1: 11:52

Are people even going to want to come back to offices?

Speaker 2: 11:54

I don't know that's the billion dollar question everyone's asking.

Speaker 1: 11:57

Yeah, and if they do come back?

Speaker 2: 11:59

Right.

Speaker 1: 11:59

What's going to make them want to leave their comfy homes?

Speaker 2: 12:02

That's what landlords and developers are trying to figure out right now. They're realizing that offices need to be more than just a desk. They need to be like a destination.

Speaker 1: 12:12

So you're talking about, like, creating an experience?

Speaker 2: 12:14

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 12:15

Like what's the vibe, what are the perks, what makes this office stand out?

Speaker 2: 12:19

Exactly, think like on-site amenities.

Speaker 1: 12:22

Okay.

Speaker 2: 12:23

Like a fitness center, maybe a nice cafe, yeah, even childcare facilities. Wow, you know, places for people to collaborate and socialize.

Speaker 1: 12:31

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 12:31

Make it feel more like a community.

Speaker 1: 12:33

It's like the office is becoming this little mini community.

Speaker 2: 12:35

I think so. You go there to work, but you also go there to connect with people.

Speaker 1: 12:40

Yeah.

Speaker 2: 12:40

To learn to be a part of something.

Speaker 1: 12:42

And for a place like Rockefeller Center.

Speaker 2: 12:44

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 12:45

That sense of community is already there.

Speaker 2: 12:46

You're right, they've got a head start.

Speaker 1: 12:48

They have that history.

Speaker 2: 12:49

They do.

Speaker 1: 12:49

But they they're still trying to figure out how to make it all work.

Speaker 2: 12:53

Yeah, it's a balancing act.

Speaker 1: 12:55

Yeah, trying to balance their legacy with this new way of working.

Speaker 2: 12:59

And that's what makes this whole story so fascinating.

Speaker 1: 13:01

It really is.

Speaker 2: 13:02

It's like a microcosm of the whole office market.

Speaker 1: 13:05

Yeah, it's like a test case to see if these iconic buildings can adapt.

Speaker 2: 13:08

Exactly Can they survive in this new world?

Speaker 1: 13:11

It makes you wonder what the future holds for office buildings in general.

Speaker 2: 13:15

I know it's a big question.

Speaker 1: 13:16

Are we going to see more of this adaptive reuse stuff? I think so. Will offices become more like?

Speaker 2: 13:26

community centers. Maybe Will we all end up working in vertical farms. Who?

Speaker 1: 13:27

knows, I don't know, but it's exciting to think about.

Speaker 2: 13:29

It is. I think we're going to see a lot of experimentation, a lot of new ideas. The old way of doing things is being challenged.

Speaker 1: 13:38

Yeah. And that opens up the door for some really creative solutions. So it's like we're witnessing a whole new era of the workplace being born.

Speaker 2: 13:45

Yeah, I think you're right.

Speaker 1: 13:47

But in the meantime we've got this big refinancing deal going on with Rockefeller Center.

Speaker 2: 13:51

Right, a real nail biter.

Speaker 1: 13:53

Do you think they could pull it off?

Speaker 2: 13:56

It's hard to say for sure, the financial world is full of surprises.

Speaker 1: 14:01

True, but whatever happens, it's going to have ripple effects.

Speaker 2: 14:04

Definitely. It's not just about one building. It's about the future of work and how we use our cities.

Speaker 1: 14:09

It's a big deal. This whole thing has given me a lot to think about.

Speaker 2: 14:13

Me too.

Speaker 1: 14:14

So let's take a minute and recap what we've learned.

Speaker 2: 14:16

Sounds good.

Speaker 1: 14:17

So we've got Rockefeller Center, this iconic landmark. That is a financial boost and the outcome could tell us a lot about the future of offices.

Speaker 2: 14:27

Yeah, not just in New York, but across the country.

Speaker 1: 14:29

Yeah, and we talked about how Rockefeller Center has some things going for it, like it's a mix of tenants Right it. And we talked about how Rockefeller Center has some things going for it. Like its mix of tenants Right, it's a tourist spot and even that classic charm. But charm only gets you so far.

Speaker 2: 14:40

True. At the end of the day, lenders want to see a solid plan.

Speaker 1: 14:45

Right.

Speaker 2: 14:45

For how this building is going to generate income, you know, especially in a market where so many offices are sitting empty.

Speaker 1: 14:52

Yeah, and we also talked about how even if Rockefeller Center refinances successfully- Right. It doesn't mean the office market as a whole is out of the woods.

Speaker 2: 15:01

No, there are still big challenges out there.

Speaker 1: 15:03

Yeah, like we're seeing these major investors selling off their office building.

Speaker 2: 15:06

Yeah, it's like they're saying we don't know what the future holds, so we're getting out while we can.

Speaker 1: 15:10

Yeah, it's a little unsettling, but maybe, just maybe, this opens up opportunities for new players to come in.

Speaker 2: 15:16

Yeah, maybe.

Speaker 1: 15:17

You know, maybe with fresh ideas about how to use these spaces.

Speaker 2: 15:20

Yeah, new approaches.

Speaker 1: 15:21

Who knows, maybe we'll see a surge in those vertical farms after all.

Speaker 2: 15:24

I wouldn't rule anything out. The one thing I'm sure of is that the office landscape is changing, yeah, and the most successful buildings will be the ones that can adapt Right. They've got to be flexible and offer something unique.

Speaker 1: 15:35

So it's not just about having a fancy address anymore.

Speaker 2: 15:38

No, it's about creating a whole experience.

Speaker 1: 15:41

Yeah, a vibe, a place where people actually want to be.

Speaker 2: 15:44

Exactly, and that's something that a place like Rockefeller Center, with its history and energy, might be able to pull off.

Speaker 1: 15:50

It's like they're starting the race a few steps ahead.

Speaker 2: 15:53

Yeah, but it's still a race.

Speaker 1: 15:54

It is, and the finish line is still a ways off.

Speaker 2: 15:56

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 15:57

This whole situation has definitely given me a lot to think about.

Speaker 2: 16:00

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 16:00

What about you? What's your biggest takeaway?

Speaker 2: 16:03

You know, for me it's just a reminder that even in this world, where things are changing so fast, there's still value in these iconic physical spaces. Yeah, they represent history, community and a sense of place that you just can't replicate online.

Speaker 1: 16:17

I love that. It's like they're these anchors in a sea of uncertainty.

Speaker 2: 16:20

Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 1: 16:21

So, as we wrap up this deep dive into the world of real estate and this fascinating story of Rockefeller Center, what's the one thing you hope our listeners walk away with?

Speaker 2: 16:30

I hope they come away with a sense of curiosity and a sense of possibility. You know the office market is in flux, but that creates opportunities for innovation and creativity. We might not know exactly what the future holds, but it's going to be interesting to watch it unfold.

Speaker 1: 16:46

Well said.

Speaker 2: 16:46

Yeah.

Speaker 1: 16:47

So, to all of you deep divers out there, keep your eyes on the skyline, because the future of our cities is being written right now.

Speaker 2: 16:54

That's a great way to put it.

Speaker 1: 16:56

And who knows, maybe one day we'll all be working in those vertical farms eating our locally grown lettuce.

Speaker 2: 17:01

Sounds delicious.

Speaker 1: 17:02

Will we brainstorm the next big? Thing?

Speaker 2: 17:04

I like it.

Speaker 1: 17:04

Thanks for joining us on this deep dive. My pleasure Until next time. Keep exploring, keep questioning and keep diving deep.

Speaker 2: 17:11

Absolutely.