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Rental Relief or Mirage? Navigating the US Housing Affordability Crisis

• David (Viacheslav) Davidenko • Season 4

Can the current state of the US rental market offer a glimmer of hope amidst the affordability crisis? Join us as we explore this pressing question and unravel the complexities of the housing landscape. With the median rent dropping to $1,703 in November 2024, there's a potential shift on the horizon. Yet, renters still face steep challenges, often working more than 40 hours a week to cover housing costs. We dive into the reasons behind the stubborn rise in rent despite this dip, from supply chain hiccups to escalating housing demand. Our discussion touches on the disconnect between rent and home prices, where rents offer some relief while the dream of homeownership remains just out of reach for many, particularly first-time buyers.

As we continue, we examine how cities like St. Louis and Seattle are tackling the housing affordability crisis through wage increases and other tailored solutions. Whether it's zoning reform, density bonuses, or rent control policies, we weigh the pros and cons of various strategies designed to alleviate the strain on renters. Moreover, we highlight the importance of employer-driven housing initiatives and the invaluable support from community organizations like tenant unions. The conversation moves toward the future, contemplating how demographic trends and economic shifts could shape housing demand. We stress the critical need for a collective and empathetic approach to effectively address this ongoing challenge.

📰 Read more about this topic in our latest article:  https://sunrisecapitalgroup.com/rents-are-down-wages-are-up-will-this-finally-solve-the-housing-crisis/

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Disclaimer: The content provided on this channel is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or tax advice. We strongly recommend that you consult with qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Past performance of investments is not indicative of future results. The information presented here is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or investments. Our firm may have conflicts of interest, and we do not guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of the content provided. Investing involves risks, and you should carefully consid...

Speaker 1:

Hey everyone, Welcome back for another deep dive.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

Today we're going to be looking at the current state of the rental market in the US.

Speaker 2:

Okay.

Speaker 1:

You know, it's something that I think is on a lot of people's minds these days, absolutely, you know. If you want to learn more about real estate investing after listening to this, you can go over to www.2060.us.

Speaker 2:

All right.

Speaker 1:

But first we're going to break down some recent trends in the rental market and we're going to kind of look at what they might mean for you if you're a renter.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

And we've got excerpts from this really insightful article. Okay, that kind of explores the potential relief but also some of the ongoing affordability challenges that renters are facing.

Speaker 2:

Right, it's a bit of a mixed bag.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, definitely a mixed bag. Yeah, but that's why we're here.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

You know, to try and help you make sense of it all, absolutely. So let's jump right in.

Speaker 2:

Sounds good.

Speaker 1:

One thing that stood out to me.

Speaker 2:

Okay.

Speaker 1:

Is that nationwide? The median rent actually fell to $1,703 in November of 2024, which is down $57 from its peak back in August of 2022.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, that's good news.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's welcome.

Speaker 2:

Right after years of just increases, yeah, Increases, increases, you know yeah it seems like it's been going up forever. Right.

Speaker 1:

The article even mentioned that studio apartments saw the biggest decrease Interesting Year over year down 1.6%. Huh, I was a little surprised by that.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, me too.

Speaker 1:

Honestly, with so many people working remotely and you would think that people would need more space, Right? So?

Speaker 2:

you'd think smaller units wouldn't be affected. Yeah, you would think they'd be holding on to that price a little bit more tightly. But you know we may be seeing a shift back towards those smaller units as people are adjusting to these. You know hybrid work models smaller units, as people are adjusting to these you know hybrid work models Okay, or you know, maybe they're just prioritizing, you know, affordability over having a lot of space.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that makes sense, right. I mean, maybe people are just tired of paying so much for rent.

Speaker 2:

Well, exactly.

Speaker 1:

But I guess what's really important is that even with this dip, rents are still much higher.

Speaker 2:

Oh yeah.

Speaker 1:

Than they were before the pandemic Much higher.

Speaker 2:

Oh, yeah, than they were before the pandemic, Much higher.

Speaker 1:

So you know, it's not like things are back to normal. No, no, no, not at all. What are some of the reasons why? We're seeing this persistent rise in rent, even though you know we have this little dip.

Speaker 2:

So you know, the pandemic really kind of threw a wrench into things. You know. We saw those supply chain disruptions that really drove up the cost of materials, which made new construction way more expensive.

Speaker 2:

That makes sense. At the same time, you know the demand for housing surged as people you know sought more space, they wanted home offices or they just want to change the scenery, and you know that combination of factors really created a perfect storm for pushing those rents up. And you know that combination of factors really created a perfect storm for pushing those rents up. And the question now is whether you know this recent dip is just temporary.

Speaker 1:

OK.

Speaker 2:

Or is this like a sign of a more sustained trend downwards?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, so it's hard to say. Yeah, it is hard to for sure if this is just a blip or if this is the start of a new trend Right. And it's important to remember too that when we're talking about median rent, we're looking at averages. The actual cost of renting varies so much.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Depending on where you are.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

What kind of unit you're looking at.

Speaker 2:

Sure.

Speaker 1:

What amenities you want.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, location, location, location.

Speaker 1:

Location location location. Yeah, location location location, location location location Exactly.

Speaker 2:

The article also mentioned this kind of strange disconnect between rent prices and home prices. Right, while rents are easing up a bit, home prices are still way up there. Still sky high. Yeah, it said that the median price per square foot for homes surged almost 50 percent, wow, compared to just 18.1 percent increase in rent back in 2019.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, so you know, while lower rents might give some renters a little bit of breeding room, yeah. It doesn't necessarily make it easier to become a homeowner.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Those high home prices are still a huge barrier.

Speaker 2:

Especially for first-time homebuyers. Especially for first-time buyers. Yeah, you know, they're really struggling.

Speaker 1:

So for our listeners out there, I mean, is this like a window of opportunity to try and jump into homeownership while the rents are slightly lower?

Speaker 2:

It's hard to say for sure. It really depends on your personal circumstances. You know your finances and you know what's going on in your local market. For some, this might be a chance to save more aggressively for a down payment, but for others, that dream of owning a home might still feel very far away.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that makes sense. Let's shift gears a little bit, ok, and talk about affordability, right, because even with this dip in rent prices, it's still a major concern for a lot of people.

Speaker 2:

It is.

Speaker 1:

The article pointed out that in many cities, even if two people are splitting rent Right On a modest apartment, they'd need to work way more than 40 hours a week.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

Just to keep their housing costs housing costs below 30% of their income.

Speaker 2:

It really highlights the difference between what we consider affordable on paper.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

And you know what people are actually experiencing in their lives, right. When you add in all those other expenses food, transportation, health care it becomes really clear that you know a lot of renters are stretched really thin.

Speaker 1:

And the article provided some really stark examples. It did To kind of illustrate this point.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

Cities like Seattle and Minneapolis, which have higher minimum wages, seem to be doing a little bit better in terms of wages keeping pace with these housing costs. But then you've got places like Nashville and Austin, which are still relying on that federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, and that just doesn't cut it.

Speaker 2:

No, it doesn't.

Speaker 1:

I mean in Nashville. The article said that someone would need to work 82 hours a week.

Speaker 2:

Wow.

Speaker 1:

To afford the median rent.

Speaker 2:

That's crazy.

Speaker 1:

And in Austin it's 79 hours.

Speaker 2:

I mean that's just not sustainable. Mean that's just not sustainable.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's just not possible. It's really alarming.

Speaker 2:

It is.

Speaker 1:

And it really, I think, underscores the impact that these local wage policies have on people's ability to just make ends meet.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

What we're seeing is that in cities with those higher minimum wages, even if they have a higher overall cost of living, with those higher minimum wages, even if they have a higher overall cost of living, there's often a better quality of life and greater economic mobility for people at the lower end of the income spectrum. That makes sense. So you know, location plays a huge role. Yeah, it does Not just in terms of those rent prices, but also in terms of the policies that are in place to support workers.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely and this kind of raises another interesting question. You know what happens if wages stay the same in certain areas while the housing costs remain high. Could we see people moving? You know, migrating to cities that have a better wage to housing cost ratio.

Speaker 1:

I mean, could we see like a surge in migration if people seek out, you know, cities with a better balance?

Speaker 2:

It could happen.

Speaker 1:

It's fascinating to think about it is that these economic conditions can actually, you know, influence demographic shifts across the whole country.

Speaker 2:

Across the country. Exactly, and I think it really underscores the need for policymakers to think about you know how interconnected all these issues are.

Speaker 1:

You know, and we're going to dig deeper into those policy implications and potential solutions in part two of this deep dive Sounds good, but first let's talk about some positive news.

Speaker 2:

OK, I like positive news On the wage front. All right.

Speaker 1:

The article highlighted that 23 of the 50 largest metro areas are actually going to see minimum wage increases in 2025. Oh wow, that's got to be a relief for a lot of folks out there.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I mean, even small increases can make a difference in someone's budget, Right? Especially, you know, over time. Yeah, imagine having, you know, a couple extra dollars each week.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

You know, maybe to buy groceries to put in savings, or even, you know, just a little treat.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, like a little breathing room can make such a big difference.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. It can really improve someone's quality of life.

Speaker 1:

The article even mentioned some like concrete examples of what impact these increases could have. Like in St Louis and Kansas City, the average minimum wage renter could save about four hours of work per week.

Speaker 2:

Wow.

Speaker 1:

That's huge.

Speaker 2:

It is significant.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

And even in cities with already higher minimum wages, like Seattle and Minneapolis.

Speaker 1:

Right.

Speaker 2:

These increases could still make a positive impact. You know, it's all about making things a little bit more equitable.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so wage increases are a step in the right direction.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

But what about, like the bigger picture of housing affordability?

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Are there other solutions that could help close that gap between wages and housing costs?

Speaker 2:

You know, the article didn't really give us one easy answer.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it didn't have a silver bullet.

Speaker 2:

No silver bullet, yeah, and honestly there probably isn't one.

Speaker 1:

OK.

Speaker 2:

It really emphasized that solutions need to be tailored to each specific region. Ok.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, so for instance, in cities with booming economies and high housing demand.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

We need policies that encourage the development of more affordable housing. Okay, so things like yeah, things like zoning reform.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

Density bonuses yeah, streamlined permitting processes.

Speaker 2:

Okay.

Speaker 1:

You know, all of these can help to increase the supply of housing that's actually affordable.

Speaker 2:

Those sound like more structural, long-term solutions. What about something that could provide more immediate relief for renters who are struggling right now?

Speaker 1:

Well, there's always the debate about rent control policies.

Speaker 2:

OK.

Speaker 1:

You know, those aim to stabilize rent prices and protect tenants from those sudden increases.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I've heard about those, but they seem kind of controversial.

Speaker 1:

They are controversial. Yeah, you know, while they can provide stability for current tenants, they can also have those unintended consequences.

Speaker 2:

Okay.

Speaker 1:

Some argue that rent control can discourage new construction.

Speaker 2:

Or lead to disinvestment in existing properties.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

Because landlords might not see the same potential for profit.

Speaker 1:

So it's really a complex issue. It is complex with pros and cons.

Speaker 2:

And the effectiveness really depends on how it's implemented.

Speaker 1:

It's not a magic bullet, no magic bullet. It sounds like we need like a more holistic approach.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

That takes into account the needs of both renters and property owners.

Speaker 2:

Exactly. It's all about finding that balance.

Speaker 1:

You know, as we were reading through the article, I noticed it focused a lot on policymakers. But what about employers? Oh, yeah. What can they do to help make housing more attainable for their employees?

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. More and more companies are realizing that housing affordability affects their workforce. Right, I mean, think about it. If employees are constantly worried about making rent or they have these really long commutes because they can't afford to live close to their jobs, that's going to affect their productivity, their morale, their overall well-being.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it's in everyone's best interest to have a workforce that's stable and secure.

Speaker 2:

Exactly so. Some companies are getting creative.

Speaker 1:

Okay, how so?

Speaker 2:

Well, they're offering things like housing stipends. Okay, partnering with local housing organizations.

Speaker 1:

Right.

Speaker 2:

To provide affordable housing options.

Speaker 1:

Also.

Speaker 2:

Or even, you know, exploring the possibility of building employee housing.

Speaker 1:

Wow, like near their offices.

Speaker 2:

Near their offices Exactly.

Speaker 1:

Never heard of that before.

Speaker 2:

It's still a pretty new concept.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

But it's gaining traction Right, especially in those areas with tight housing markets.

Speaker 1:

That makes sense.

Speaker 2:

And high costs of living.

Speaker 1:

So it seems like a win-win.

Speaker 2:

It does.

Speaker 1:

You know, employees get access to housing and employers benefit from a happier, more engaged workforce.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely, and it highlights something really important.

Speaker 1:

Okay, what's up?

Speaker 2:

You know, solving this affordability crisis requires a collective effort.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

It's not just on policymakers or developers, uh-huh.

Speaker 1:

Employers, community organizations, individuals we all have a role to play. Speaking of community organizations, let's not forget the role they play.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

Groups like tenant unions, legal aid services, housing counseling agencies.

Speaker 2:

They're essential.

Speaker 1:

They're on the front lines providing support to renters who are really struggling.

Speaker 2:

They are. They provide legal assistance to tenants facing eviction.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

They advocate for policy changes that protect renters' rights and they help people navigate these complex, affordable housing programs.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, they're a real lifeline for a lot of people.

Speaker 2:

They are.

Speaker 1:

You know, it's become clear that this is so much more than just numbers and statistics. Oh yeah, this is about people's lives, right, their dreams, yeah, their ability to thrive in their communities.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. Data is important for understanding the problem Right, but it can't fully capture the human impact.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

We need to remember that behind every beta point OK, there's a person with a story, right, hopes and fears and aspirations.

Speaker 1:

And for many the stress of housing insecurity can be overwhelming.

Speaker 2:

Oh, absolutely.

Speaker 1:

You know it affects their mental and physical health, their relationships.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Their overall sense of well-being.

Speaker 2:

It's a reminder that we need to approach this with empathy and a commitment to finding solutions that prioritize people.

Speaker 1:

I agree, so we've talked about potential solutions.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

What about the future? What does the road ahead look like for the rental market?

Speaker 2:

You know, unfortunately there's no crystal ball that can predict the housing market with certainty.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it's like trying to predict the weather.

Speaker 2:

It is. It's a dynamic system influenced by so many factors.

Speaker 1:

So many variables.

Speaker 2:

But we can look at some indicators to get a sense of what might happen.

Speaker 1:

So what are some of those indicators?

Speaker 2:

Well, demographics play a big role the size and composition of the renter population, their income levels, their housing preferences. All right, you know all of those things will impact demand. For example, if more people choose to rent longer or delay homeownership because of affordability concerns, that could keep demand high and potentially push prices back up.

Speaker 1:

So it's like a constant push and pull.

Speaker 2:

It is. It's a balancing act.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

And then we also have to consider the broader economic context.

Speaker 1:

OK.

Speaker 2:

You know things like inflation, interest rates, job growth, yeah, overall economic stability.

Speaker 1:

Right, all of those things. All of it Can't have an impact.

Speaker 2:

Exactly.

Speaker 1:

So it's like trying to solve this giant puzzle, yeah, with pieces that are constantly moving, that's a great analogy Exactly so. It's like trying to solve this giant puzzle with pieces that are constantly moving.

Speaker 2:

That's a great analogy. Yeah, but you know, the key is to stay informed, be prepared for those shifts and adapt.

Speaker 1:

So, for our listeners out there, what are some practical tips for navigating this market?

Speaker 2:

Well, first understand your local market conditions. Well, first understand your local market conditions. Okay, are rents rising or falling? Uh-huh. What's the vacancy rate? Yeah, what are the policies that your local government is considering? You know all of this information will help you make better decisions.

Speaker 1:

It's like doing your research.

Speaker 2:

Exactly.

Speaker 1:

Before making any big purchase.

Speaker 2:

You got it. You want to be knowledgeable so you can protect your interests.

Speaker 1:

And don't be afraid to advocate for yourself. Absolutely If you're a good tenant, paying your rent on time.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Taking care of the property.

Speaker 2:

Have it with leverage.

Speaker 1:

Know your rights as a renter. Ask questions Right. Seek clarification if something's unclear.

Speaker 2:

Good points and remember there are resources out there that can help you. You know organizations like tenant unions, legal aid services, housing counseling agencies. You're not alone in this.

Speaker 1:

OK.

Speaker 2:

There are people and organizations that are there to help.

Speaker 1:

This has been such an insightful conversation. It has We've covered a lot of ground, from falling rents to affordability challenges.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Minimum wage increases. Oh yeah, the role of different stakeholders, yeah, even some practical tips.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

But it feels like we've only just scratched the surface.

Speaker 2:

I agree. There's so much more to explore.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

When it comes to housing policy.

Speaker 1:

Uh-huh.

Speaker 2:

Economic trends.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

The social impact.

Speaker 1:

Right.

Speaker 2:

You know, this is a topic that deserves a lot of attention.

Speaker 1:

And that's what we're all about here.

Speaker 2:

That's right.

Speaker 1:

At the Deep Dive. Yeah, delving deeper into these issues and encouraging you, our listeners, to do the same.

Speaker 2:

Keep learning.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, keep asking questions, keep advocating for a more equitable housing system.

Speaker 2:

For everyone.

Speaker 1:

Couldn't agree more.

Speaker 2:

Stay curious.

Speaker 1:

Stay, curious Stay curious.

Speaker 2:

All right, welcome back to the deep dive. We're wrapping up our look at the rental market and it's been a really interesting conversation so far.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it really has.

Speaker 2:

We've gone over a lot, some areas, but then we dug into, you know, those ongoing affordability challenges, especially, you know, for folks who are earning minimum wage, yeah, and how that plays out differently.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, in all these cities across the US. Yeah, it's definitely a complex topic and we've covered a lot of ground. I think, yeah, one of the biggest takeaways, for me at least, is that there really isn't like a single solution.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. I mean, we talked about the need for these tailored approaches.

Speaker 1:

Right, it's not one size fits all. No, it's not, yeah.

Speaker 2:

And, you know, it's not just about finding solutions, it's about really understanding what led to this issue in the first place.

Speaker 1:

Right. So you know we talked about the pandemic's impact on the housing market. You know the supply chain problems, those rising costs for construction Right and that widening gap between what people are earning and what they have to pay for housing.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it's a lot of different factors all tangled up together.

Speaker 1:

So, as we look ahead, you know, for the rental market, yeah, what should renters keep in mind?

Speaker 2:

I think the big thing is.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

Stay informed. Yeah keep in mind. I think the big thing is stay informed, keep up with what's happening at the national level, but also zoom in on your local area.

Speaker 1:

Right. So pay attention to those news reports, the housing market analysis and what those local groups are saying.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. You know. Knowledge is power. The more you know, the better decisions you can make.

Speaker 1:

About your own housing situation.

Speaker 2:

About your own housing situation About your own housing situation.

Speaker 1:

Exactly.

Speaker 2:

And you know, and I think this is really important Don't underestimate the power of community.

Speaker 1:

Oh yeah, I completely agree you know.

Speaker 2:

Connect with other renters, Share your experiences. Yeah, Learn from each other. You know there's strength in numbers. Absolutely you know there's strength in numbers absolutely, and you know by working together you can really advocate yep for better policies, for more affordability and for housing justice I think that's a great point. Yeah, it's easy to feel isolated right when you're dealing with these housing challenges, but remember there are others out there who are going through the same things, absolutely and you know there are people and organizations who are there through the same things, Absolutely, and you know there are people and organizations who are there to support renters.

Speaker 1:

That's right and advocate for change.

Speaker 2:

Don't give up hope.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I think that's a really important message.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

Don't lose hope.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

You know, I know it can feel overwhelming, especially when you're struggling to make ends meet or facing an uncertain future.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, but even when things are tough, there are people working hard to make things better. The progress might be slow, but it's happening.

Speaker 1:

That's a really powerful message to end on Stay informed, stay connected and stay hopeful.

Speaker 2:

You got it. And for those of you who are maybe interested in real estate investing, check out www.2060.us.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

They've got some great information and resources there.

Speaker 1:

I think that's a great place to wrap up this deep dive.

Speaker 2:

It's been great talking to you.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, thanks for joining me for this conversation.

Speaker 2:

Thanks for having me.

Speaker 1:

And thanks to all of you out there for listening. We'll see you next time for another deep dive into something fascinating. Until then, stay curious.

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