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Decoding the 2025 Housing Market: Trends, Challenges, and Strategic Solutions

• David (Viacheslav) Davidenko • Season 4

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The episode brings insights into the evolving dynamics of the 2025 housing market, focusing on high mortgage rates, the lock-in effect, and shifting buyer demographics. The discussion also emphasizes the importance of understanding regional variations, particularly the Sunbelt region's growth, and offers strategic advice for prospective buyers navigating this complex landscape.

• High mortgage rates are impacting affordability and access for buyers
• The lock-in effect is causing a shortage of homes for sale
• Shadow inventory represents potential homes that could enter the market
• Buyers are increasingly favoring smaller, affordable homes
• The median age of homebuyers is rising, revealing generational trends
• The Sunbelt is attracting buyers due to economic opportunities, yet caution is needed
• Researching specific markets is essential for informed decision-making

📰 Read more about this topic in our latest article:  https://sunrisecapitalgroup.com/the-future-of-real-estate-what-2025-holds-for-homebuyers-and-sellers/

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Speaker 1:

Right. So you've been digging into those 2025 housing market predictions, right, trying to figure out what's coming next. We've got you covered.

Speaker 2:

We've got a whole stack of research and articles all right here, ready for a deep dive.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it's like everyone's asking the same question.

Speaker 2:

It's like, will mortgage rates finally drop below 6%?

Speaker 1:

What is this lock-in effect everyone's talking about and does it actually matter to you, know, regular people?

Speaker 2:

And is the Sunbelt really the paradise? Everyone says it is, or is that just hype?

Speaker 1:

Well, to really understand where we're going, we've got to look back at what happened in 2024.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, 2024 was interesting.

Speaker 1:

Interesting how.

Speaker 2:

Well, think about it. Houses just sat on the market for like an average of 70 days during the holidays 70 days, that's a long time. It's practically unheard of.

Speaker 1:

I can only imagine what that does to people's plans. You know whether you're trying to buy or sell.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely, and there are a few things driving this whole shift. Big one is rising mortgage rates, of course.

Speaker 1:

Makes sense. Higher rates, less people can afford to buy.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, and when you add that to the fact that there just aren't that many homes for sale.

Speaker 1:

You get a lot of hesitant buyers.

Speaker 2:

A lot of hesitant buyers. So let's talk mortgage rates.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, let's talk about them, Because your research mentions that the Federal Reserve thinks rates are going to stay above 6% for, like most of 2025.

Speaker 2:

That's what they're predicting, yeah.

Speaker 1:

So, like for someone who's trying to buy a house right now, what does that even mean Practically speaking?

Speaker 2:

Well, first of all, it means you're going to be paying a lot more in interest over the life of your loan. Makes sense, and when you combine that with already high home prices.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that's got to be a tough pill to swallow for some people.

Speaker 2:

It creates a real affordability challenge. But there's another layer to this affordability challenge. But there's another layer to this.

Speaker 1:

It's called the lock-in effect. Okay, so what is this lock-in effect? Everyone keeps mentioning it, but what does it even mean?

Speaker 2:

So think about it. Over 60% of homeowners in the US have mortgages with interest rates below 4%. Wow, okay. So now imagine you're one of those homeowners. Are you going to sell your house and buy a new one at like double the interest rate? Probably not.

Speaker 1:

Probably not, and that's exactly what's happening. People are staying put.

Speaker 2:

Which means fewer homes for sale.

Speaker 1:

Which means fewer homes for sale, exactly.

Speaker 2:

OK, so what does that mean for prices then? Wouldn't fewer buyers mean lower prices?

Speaker 1:

You'd think so right, but it's not quite that straightforward. How so Well, overall prices actually went up by about 4% in 2024.

Speaker 2:

That seems counterintuitive.

Speaker 1:

It does, right, Right. But then you look closer and you see that in December the median price actually dipped a bit.

Speaker 2:

Median price Just remind me what that means again.

Speaker 1:

Sure, it's just the middle point of all the home prices in an area.

Speaker 2:

Right right Gets rid of those really high or low outliers.

Speaker 1:

Exactly. It helps us understand what a typical house costs.

Speaker 2:

Got it. So prices went up overall, but then dipped a bit in December. That's confusing.

Speaker 1:

It is, and to understand it you got to look at what people are actually buying. There's been a shift in demand towards smaller, more affordable homes.

Speaker 2:

Smaller, more affordable, so like the actual size of the house. Yeah, and the price per square foot actually went up, even though the overall median price dipped.

Speaker 1:

So it's not just about the total price of the house.

Speaker 2:

Right, it's about how much space you're getting for your money.

Speaker 1:

Buyers are getting Strategic, very strategic. They're making adjustments based on affordability.

Speaker 2:

Interesting. So one of your articles mentioned something called shadow inventory. What is that?

Speaker 1:

Shadow inventory yeah, it refers to all those homes that could be listed for sale but aren't yet. But aren't yet Exactly.

Speaker 2:

Maybe someone's waiting for a better time to sell, or or they're in a tough spot financially and they might have to sell.

Speaker 1:

Exactly. So, even if those mortgage rates do come down a bit, we could see a wave of new listings which could really shake things up. It could definitely impact prices in a whole new way.

Speaker 2:

So many moving pieces.

Speaker 1:

There are, and on top of all of this, there's more, there's more. We have this ongoing issue of just not enough new homes being built. We haven't built enough new homes to meet demand for like over a decade.

Speaker 2:

So even if we see some improvement in other areas, this low supply is going to keep pushing prices up.

Speaker 1:

Got it OK, so we've got high mortgage rates. This lock in effect shadow inventory and a lack of new construction. That's a lot right, it's a lot, but before we like completely spiral, let's shift gears a bit. Let's talk about who's actually buying in this market. I'm super curious about this statistic the median age of homebuyers is now 56. What's going on there?

Speaker 2:

That's a great question. It tells us a lot about what's happening between different generations in the housing market Older buyers, who often have more wealth. Wait, hold on.

Speaker 1:

If people are buying smaller homes, shouldn't prices be going down overall, but price per square foot is going up. How does that work?

Speaker 2:

That's a sharp observation. You're right. If everyone was only buying small homes and nobody wanted big ones anymore, we'd probably see overall prices drop. But what we're seeing is a shift in preference, not a complete abandonment of larger homes.

Speaker 1:

Oh, I see. So while the overall median price might dip because people are choosing smaller homes, the price per square foot is going up because there's still a strong demand for those larger spaces, especially really popular areas.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, it's like trying to fit a gallon of water into a pint glass.

Speaker 1:

I love that analogy and this is where that lock-in effect comes back.

Speaker 2:

Exactly. Many of those older homeowners who have those low mortgage rates are sitting in those larger homes they're not selling, so the supply of those larger homes stays tight.

Speaker 1:

So it's this whole multi-generational puzzle.

Speaker 2:

It is Older homeowners staying put, younger buyers facing these affordability challenges and everybody's trying to get a piece of the limited inventory.

Speaker 1:

It's like a real estate tug of war.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

And to make things even more interesting, first-time buyers are having a really tough time. They only made up 24% of purchases last year.

Speaker 2:

That's the lowest share in over 40 years.

Speaker 1:

Wow, that's rough. High prices not many options and those high interest rates. High prices not many options, and those high interest rates. But hey, before we get too gloomy, your research did mention some potential bright spots, like, specifically, the Sun Belt. Let's talk about that in part two of this deep dive. All right, so we've talked about all these national trends some good, some not so good but the housing market isn't like one big thing.

Speaker 2:

Right, definitely not.

Speaker 1:

What about those regional differences? You mentioned the Sun Belt a lot.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, the Sun Belt.

Speaker 1:

What's the deal there? Is it all sunshine and rainbows, or is there something else going on?

Speaker 2:

It's definitely getting a lot of attention, and for good reason. We're seeing some crazy growth in states like Florida, texas, virginia.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I can see why people would be interested. Especially with all the challenges in other parts of the country, right? So what's driving all this growth in the Sun Belt? Is it just the warm weather?

Speaker 2:

It's more than just the weather, though that definitely helps. It's a bunch of things coming together Like what? Relatively low cost of living, job opportunities and just population growth.

Speaker 1:

It makes sense. Lower cost of living jobs, sunshine Sounds like a pretty good deal, but you mentioned earlier that it's important to be aware of the downsides, right?

Speaker 2:

Exactly. It's not all perfect. There are some great opportunities, yeah, but you got to be careful not to get caught up in the hype. Some markets in the Sunbelt are getting a little overheated. Overheated how Prices going up too fast, maybe even a bubble forming.

Speaker 1:

Oh, a bubble. That doesn't sound good. So how do you like avoid that? How do you know if it's a real opportunity or just hype?

Speaker 2:

That's the big question, isn't it? There's no easy answer, but yeah one thing you can do is look at specific cities. Look for places with good economic fundamentals.

Speaker 1:

So don't just blindly move to the Sunbelt Right. Do your research, make sure the city makes sense for you.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, relocating is a huge decision. You got to consider your job, the cost of living, even your lifestyle.

Speaker 1:

Right, the Sunbelt might be great for some people, but it's not for everyone.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, and some of the research you shared talked about concerns with overdevelopment.

Speaker 1:

Oh yeah, and water scarcity in some areas.

Speaker 2:

That's a good point.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

You have to think about the long-term sustainability of a region.

Speaker 1:

Makes sense.

Speaker 2:

If an area is struggling with overdevelopment or water shortages, those are red flags.

Speaker 1:

It could impact your investment.

Speaker 2:

Exactly no-transcript.

Speaker 1:

Oh, I like that. It's a good reminder that context is everything it is. So with a Sunbelt, it's about finding that balance.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

A city with good fundamentals, but also a commitment to sustainable growth.

Speaker 2:

You got it, and that takes some work. Don't just rely on headlines or, you know, fancy brochures.

Speaker 1:

Really dive into the research.

Speaker 2:

Look at things like population trends, job growth, infrastructure investments.

Speaker 1:

Those are the things that show whether a city is set up for success in the long run. Exactly, so we've got this complicated picture, right. Yeah, on one hand, there are these big national trends like high interest rates and the lock-in effect Right and on the other hand, there are these regional dynamics that are all over the place.

Speaker 2:

It is a lot to take in, especially if you're trying to figure out what to do next.

Speaker 1:

It is, and that's why having these resources, like those articles you've been digging into, it's super important. They give you the context you need to make smart decisions.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely.

Speaker 1:

Okay, let's pause here for a sec. Think about what we've talked about.

Speaker 2:

Those high mortgage rates, the lock-in effect, generational stuff, even the Sun Belt, lots to process, operational stuff even the Sun Belt Lots to process. We've explored the challenges like the lack of inventory and affordability, but also some potential good stuff.

Speaker 1:

Right like that lock-in effect, easing up a bit and those regional opportunities.

Speaker 2:

Right.

Speaker 1:

Okay, we're not quite done yet. We still have one more part of this deep dive. We'll break it all down, give you some key takeaways.

Speaker 2:

Some food for thought.

Speaker 1:

Exactly To help you navigate your own real estate journey. I'm free for thought. Exactly To help you navigate your own real estate journey. Stay tuned. And we are back for the final part of our deep dive into the 2025 housing market.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it's been a long run.

Speaker 1:

We've covered a lot those high mortgage rates, the lock-in effect, all those different things happening between generations in the market.

Speaker 2:

Even explored the allure of the Sunbelt.

Speaker 1:

Right, all the challenges and the potential, but as we wrap this up, I wanna make sure we leave the listener with some like key takeaways, the things that really matter.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, that's important. I mean, knowledge is power, right, especially when you're dealing with something as complicated as buying or selling a house.

Speaker 1:

For sure. So let's start with one of the biggest things we keep coming back to, those high mortgage rates.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, those are definitely sticking around.

Speaker 1:

They just don't seem to want to go below 6%.

Speaker 2:

Yeah.

Speaker 1:

So, for our listeners out there, what's the main takeaway?

Speaker 2:

I think the main takeaway is that we're just in a different world now when it comes to interest rates.

Speaker 1:

Like we can't expect those super low rates we saw a few years ago to come back anytime soon.

Speaker 2:

Probably not For a long time. People got used to those really low rates that drove a lot of activity in the market, but that's over for now. Buyers need to adjust their expectations.

Speaker 1:

So no more 3% mortgages.

Speaker 2:

Probably not. But that doesn't mean you can't buy a house. It just means you got to be smarter about it.

Speaker 1:

So be prepared to pay more in interest.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, factor that into your budget, maybe be ready to compromise a little on what you're looking for.

Speaker 1:

Okay, flexibility is key, and that brings us back to the lock-in effect. So many homeowners have those amazing rates from a few years ago and they're not letting go.

Speaker 2:

Understandably so.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I mean who would trade a 3% rate for a 6% rate? But what does that do to the market overall?

Speaker 2:

Well, it kind of creates a bottleneck Fewer homes for sale, inventory stays low, prices get pushed up and that's where those generational dynamics come in.

Speaker 1:

Right, tell me about that again.

Speaker 2:

Older homeowners, who often have those low rates, are staying in their bigger homes and younger buyers are, like, struggling to get into the market because of the high prices. It creates this imbalance.

Speaker 1:

So is there any way to like break this lock, in effect, create more opportunities for everyone?

Speaker 2:

That's a tough one. There's no magic solution, but I think we might start to see more creative financing options popping up, Like what? Adjustable rate mortgages maybe, or even rent-to-own programs.

Speaker 1:

So helping those buyers who can't get a traditional mortgage.

Speaker 2:

Exactly. The market might have to get a little more creative to make things work.

Speaker 1:

That makes sense, and don't forget regional differences. We talked about how the Sunbelt is attracting a lot of buyers, but it's not the answer for everyone.

Speaker 2:

Right, you got to do your research, know what's happening in that specific city or area, make sure it aligns with your goals, your life.

Speaker 1:

Don't just follow the crowd. Be smart about it.

Speaker 2:

Exactly, be informed, be picky.

Speaker 1:

All right. So, as we wrap up this deep dive, I want to leave you with one last thought, something to really think about as you navigate this crazy housing market. What do you think Are these things you've been talking about high interest rates, low inventory are they just temporary?

Speaker 2:

Or are they signs of a bigger shift in how the market works? That's the question, isn't it?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, no one has a crystal ball. But if you understand what's happening, you can make the best choices for yourself. Knowledge is power.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely, especially in real estate. Keep learning, keep those resources handy, stay curious and, most importantly, don't be afraid to ask questions. The more you know, the better.

Speaker 1:

Exactly, keep learning, stay informed. No-transcript.

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David (Viacheslav) Davidenko

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