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The Housing Market Shift

• David (Viacheslav) Davidenko

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The housing market stands at a pivotal turning point according to fresh Zillow analysis that forecasts a nearly 2% decline in US home values by the end of 2025. This represents the first significant nationwide price drop since 2012, signaling a fundamental shift away from the frenetic post-pandemic market conditions that drove double-digit growth and created intense competition among buyers.

Two key factors are driving this cooling trend. Housing inventory is finally increasing, giving buyers more choices and stronger negotiating positions. Simultaneously, mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, potentially reaching 6.5% later this year, significantly impacting affordability. The combination is creating a rebalancing effect as sellers adjust their expectations to the new reality.

Paradoxically, while home purchase prices may dip, rental costs are projected to increase by 3.1% through year-end. This creates a challenging dynamic where buying becomes nominally cheaper but remains expensive due to financing costs, while renting grows increasingly costly without building equity. The explanation lies in supply and demand—high mortgage rates keep potential buyers renting longer, increasing rental demand and pushing prices upward.

Geographic differences remain pronounced, with Southern states like Texas, Louisiana, and Florida potentially offering better buying opportunities, while the Northeast continues to face tight supply and rising prices. For those with long-term horizons of 7-10 years, homeownership may still represent a sound financial strategy despite current high interest rates.

Understanding these market forces—from supply constraints to regional variations—is essential for anyone navigating today's housing landscape. Whether you're looking to buy, sell, or rent, recognizing that we're in a transitional period can help you make more informed decisions about your next move. What assumptions about housing security might you need to reconsider in this evolving market?

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Speaker 1:

Okay, let's talk housing. Feels like it's constantly on everyone's mind, right?

Speaker 2:

Absolutely, whether you're trying to buy or maybe you own a place and you're watching those Zillow Zestimates.

Speaker 1:

Oh yeah, the Zestimates Guilty. We all are, yeah, or?

Speaker 2:

you know, even if you're just trying to get a handle on the economy, housing is huge.

Speaker 1:

It really is. So the big question we want to dig into today, based on some fresh analysis are home prices finally starting to slow down that relentless climb? Is it taking a breather?

Speaker 2:

That's exactly it. We've been looking closely at Zillow's latest projections for the US market and, honestly, they point towardsa pretty interesting shift.

Speaker 1:

Okay.

Speaker 2:

So our mission really in this deep dive is to unpack what Zillow's seeing we're talking, national home values, mortgage rate forecasts, what's happening with rent the whole picture, whole picture, and figuring out what it might mean for you, depending on where you are and what you're hoping to do.

Speaker 1:

All right, let's start big picture. Then the national view. What's the main headline from Zillow? That kind of jumps out.

Speaker 2:

Well, the most striking thing is their projection for a nearly 2% decline in US home values by the end of 2025.

Speaker 1:

Wow OK, a decline, not just a slowdown.

Speaker 2:

A decline and while you know 2% might not sound massive on its own Right, it's actually pretty significant in context. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time we saw a comparable nationwide drop 2012.

Speaker 1:

OK, that puts it in perspective. That was a totally different market era.

Speaker 2:

Exactly so. This isn't just a minor blip, they're forecasting.

Speaker 1:

So what is a projection like that? Even if it's just under 2 percent, what does it suggest about the market's overall vibe?

Speaker 2:

It strongly suggests we're moving away from those what's called frenetic conditions we saw recently.

Speaker 1:

Frenetic is a good word for it, the post-pandemic craziness.

Speaker 2:

Totally that period of like double digit annual growth bidding wars everywhere. This projection signals a definite cooling. It points towards maybe a healthier balance returning between supply and demand.

Speaker 1:

A rebalancing, Okay. So what's driving that? Is it just more houses finally coming onto the market?

Speaker 2:

That's a big part of it. Yes, we're definitely seeing an increase in supply, more homes listed for sale.

Speaker 1:

Which gives buyers more choice.

Speaker 2:

And more bargaining power potentially. That's the first key factor.

Speaker 1:

Okay. And the second, it has to be mortgage rates. Right, you got it. Mortgage rates. They're high and Zillow actually anticipates they could tick up even further, maybe hitting around 6.5% later this year. Oof 6.5%, that really bites into affordability.

Speaker 2:

It absolutely does. It just makes those monthly payments so much higher.

Speaker 1:

So higher rates mean fewer people can afford to buy, or maybe they just decide to wait it out.

Speaker 2:

Precisely, the pool of buyers shrinks or at least becomes more cautious, and when sellers face fewer offers or offers that are lower than they hoped, they have to adjust their expectations. They have to lower the price Exactly. They start to realize the market has shifted.

Speaker 1:

Okay, that logic tracks, but here's something that caught my eye in the Zillow analysis Even with this potential price dip and the high rates, there's still forecasting a rise in the number of actual home sales. How does that work?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, that's a great point. It seems a bit counterintuitive at first, doesn't it?

Speaker 1:

It does Fewer buyers. Maybe lower prices, but more sales.

Speaker 2:

I think it suggests the market isn't seizing up. It's more like it's adjusting adapting. We're seeing different behavior. Buyers aren't just vanishing. Maybe they're being more careful, more strategic, taking their time.

Speaker 1:

And sellers.

Speaker 2:

Sellers are increasingly getting the message they need to price things realistically for this market, not last year's market. So Zillow projecting a what was it? 3.3% increase in sales volume. Yeah, 2.3%, it means deals are still happening. People are finding a way to make it work just under these more challenging conditions.

Speaker 1:

More cautious conditions? Ok, so buying might get slightly less expensive. In terms of list price, maybe, but what about the flip side, renting? Because rents usually feel like they only go one way.

Speaker 2:

Ah yes, the rental market, and you're right to bring it up, because Zillow's forecast there is well, it's almost the opposite trend.

Speaker 1:

Oh, how so.

Speaker 2:

While they see that nearly 2% potential drop in home purchase prices, they're forecasting a 3.1% increase in rental costs by the end of the year.

Speaker 1:

Wait, hang on. Buying gets a bit cheaper but renting gets more expensive. That feels it's paradoxical.

Speaker 2:

It does seem contradictory, but there's an economic logic to it. Think about supply and demand again. Okay, when buying a home becomes more expensive or riskier, mainly because of those high mortgage rates, we talked about what happens.

Speaker 1:

Well, fewer people buy, I guess.

Speaker 2:

Right. Or at least people who might have bought decide to keep renting for longer. Maybe they can't quite make the numbers work for a purchase now, or they want to wait and see if rates come down.

Speaker 1:

Ah, okay, so more people staying in the rental pool increases demand for rentals.

Speaker 2:

Exactly Increased demand without a proportional surge in rental supply pushes rental prices up. It's a classic squeeze.

Speaker 1:

So even if a home's list price dips a bit, the actual cost of owning is still high because of borrowing costs.

Speaker 2:

Correct. Well, the alternative renting gets pricier and you're not building any equity.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, that paints a pretty tough picture for people trying to figure out their next move. So we know real estate is always local, right, location, location, location Always. Does Zillow's analysis get into those regional differences? Are some places going to feel this shift more than others?

Speaker 2:

Oh, absolutely. Geography is still king here. Zillow actually calls out a few states Texas, louisiana, florida as places that currently have relatively more affordable housing stock overall.

Speaker 1:

Interesting the South generally.

Speaker 2:

Generally yes, and within those states, they highlight specific metro areas Think Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans, even Memphis as places where buyers might find more, let's say, bargains.

Speaker 1:

Bargains. Why there specifically?

Speaker 2:

It seems to be a combination of factors, maybe a bit more inventory buildup in those markets recently, plus their prices were historically a bit lower to begin with compared to, say, the coasts.

Speaker 1:

So if you're house hunting in Jacksonville or New Orleans, you might actually see prices softening a bit more. More room to negotiate.

Speaker 2:

That's the potential Zillow sees. Yes, More supply meetings, slightly cooler demand could lead to downward pressure on prices there.

Speaker 1:

But what about other regions like the Northeast? It always feels like a different planet there.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, and Zillow's forecast reflects that. The outlook for the Northeast is quite different.

Speaker 1:

How so Still going up?

Speaker 2:

Pretty much. They anticipate that factors like really tight housing supply, consistently strong buyer demand and just the lack of space for much new construction All that is likely to keep prices climbing in that region.

Speaker 1:

So no relief in sight for Boston or New York buyers probably.

Speaker 2:

Probably not the same kind of relief you might see in some of those southern cities. The dynamics are just very different Persistent demand, limited inventory.

Speaker 1:

Right, okay, so let's pivot to the timing question. For someone not looking to flip a house but thinking long-term, like maybe staying put for 7, nine, 10 years, does this analysis say anything about whether now is still a decent time to buy, despite the interest rates?

Speaker 2:

That's a crucial question and Zillow's perspective, broadly speaking, is that yes, for those with a longer time horizon, homeownership likely still offers significant financial rewards.

Speaker 1:

Even with rates at 6% or potentially higher.

Speaker 2:

Even with those rates, their thinking seems to be that while rates are high now, they might not stay this high forever. They could stabilize, maybe even decrease down the line.

Speaker 1:

So the idea is to lock in the property itself now, even if the financing isn't ideal, and hope to refinance later or just ride it out.

Speaker 2:

Kind of it's about securing the asset before prices potentially start climbing significantly again in the future. You weather the higher borrowing costs in the short term for the potential long-term appreciation and equity building.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so they're differentiating between someone trying to make a quick buck, the swift flippers as they put it.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, this advice isn't really for them.

Speaker 1:

Right. It's for the more stable long-term homeowner who can handle market ups and downs.

Speaker 2:

Precisely For that type of buyer. Zillow suggests that even this market with its challenges could still be a reasonable entry point if the long-term financials make sense for them.

Speaker 1:

Okay, this is a lot to process. Let's try to boil it down. If you had to summarize the key takeaways from this Zillow, deep dive for someone listening, what would they be?

Speaker 2:

All right Key points. One nationally expect a small dip, maybe close to 2%, in home purchase prices by end of 2025, driven by more supply and high rates.

Speaker 1:

OK, dip in purchase price.

Speaker 2:

Two paradoxically expect rents to keep rising, maybe around 3% this year, as buying remains costly.

Speaker 1:

Right About cheaper. Maybe Rent pricier.

Speaker 2:

Three huge regional differences. The South places, like Texas, florida, louisiana, might see more buyer opportunities or price softening.

Speaker 1:

But not the Northeast.

Speaker 2:

Probably not. Northeast likely stays tight. Prices keep climbing due to low supply and high demand.

Speaker 1:

Got it.

Speaker 2:

And the last point Four for long-term buyers people planning to stay put for many years. Zillow still sees homeownership as a potentially valuable move, despite current high interest rates. Lock in the asset basically.

Speaker 1:

So it really comes down to your personal situation, doesn't it? Your time frame where you want to live your financial runway?

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. There's no single answer. Timing, location and your own long-term goals are critical for navigating this market, whether you're looking to buy, sell or just trying to find a decent rental.

Speaker 1:

Understanding these bigger forces of supply rates, regional trends. It's essential for making a smart move in what's clearly a market in transition.

Speaker 2:

Definitely a period of adjustment. Things are shifting.

Speaker 1:

This has been super helpful, really cutting through some of the confusion. It shows just how interconnected everything is. So, thinking about all these shifts, the potential price dip versus rising rents, the north-south divide, it leaves me wondering what assumptions that we've maybe held for a long time about the best path to housing security. What assumptions might we need to rethink now?

Speaker 2:

That's a great question. Definitely some food for thought there, as the landscape keeps evolving.

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David (Viacheslav) Davidenko

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